Attempts to transform the Russian Federation into a nation state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state have failed, argues Janusz Bugajski. Paradoxically, though Vladimir Putin assumed power to prevent Russia's disintegration, he may be remembered best for precipitating the country's demise.

Bugajski considers the factors contributing to a possible Russian state collapse, among them lack of economic growth, stark socioeconomic inequalities, distrust of government institutions, regional and ethnic revivals, and most recently, the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Considering the significance of such a rupture regionally and beyond, he suggests strategies for the US and other Western powers to employ in managing the impact of a Russia in decline.

Janusz Bugajski is senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation.

• Introduction: Russia's Test for the West.
• State Failures.
• Regional Unrest.
• Chronicle of Turmoil.
• Rupture Scenarios.
• Neighborhood Impact.
• Western Planning.
• Appendixes: Maps and Russian Federation Demography.